IRRATIONAL EXCUBERANCE

Unemployment rate jumps to 5.1%

U.S. payrolls report raises concerns of widespread job losses and ultimately a more significant economic slowdown — this in the same week Fed chief Ben Bernanke allows that a recession may have taken form.

Greenspan said it best about the tech bubble and anyone with half a brain should not be BUYING into a quagmire of poor economic data. Patience is the key here folks as this GIG will implode.

Bull trap set and sprung.....

JOBLESS CLAIMS 407,000............


Bull hopes expalained by this video....


Retest of Lows coming to a chart near you soon........

Much ado bout nothing

So the market got a little ahead of itself and decided to short squeeze on April Fool's day. There could still be some upside move as evidenced by the SPY, but charts like AAPL and the VIX hitting the 200 day EMA point out the longer term trend is still heading south. It will be interesting to see if AAPL rolls over at $150 to head back to $118 to complete he head and shoulders pattern.

Dow transports best performing sector?

Dow 2 year

S&P 500 1 year
S&P 1 monthDow transports 6 months

Ok am I missing something? Transports up on the highest fuel costs we've seen in decades? Perhaps not for long.....

Quarter End and Fed speak

Last day of the quarter today and a pretty boring one. I find it intersting that Paulson chooses today to release the "New Plan" that will take 2-8 years to implement regulatory controls over the banking and mortgage inustries. I guess my $600 Rebate is to justify the billions of taxpayer dollars being thrown out and pissed on to bail these guys out of poor decision making.

Anyway, most of the charts today had an "inside day" meaning that today's action was inside the high and low of the previous day high and low. This can probably be attributed to the quarter end, but some relevance can be made for tomorrow's action based on the positioning of the candle being on the lower levels. Range bound in a declining market with low volume: be nimble.

Adding to IWM Puts on today's bounce

This 3 month chart of IWM shows the trading range we've been stuck in pretty well. The interesting thing is the IWM has been the strongest of the indexes off the January lows. Therefore could one reasonably postulate that if the "strength" fails the rest bails? Bottom-line here is if IWM cannot muster enough bullish strentgh to bust above 70.60 today and makes another lower high or breaks below 68.97 to make another lower low.......LOOKOUT BELOW!!!

+ZQNSH AMZN July 40 PUT ***Take a LOOK***

2 Year Fib fans and retracements
1 year Fans nd retracements
I'm no expert, but it is probable AMZN back-fills the gap up from 43 to 55 on April 24, 2007.

AAPL Bull run over...

Getting short APPL here:

Bottom in you say? Where's the BEEF?

Out of the four charts below one of these groups is suposed to LEAD the markets off the bottom. HMMMM sure is strange that they are all retraceing back to FIB fans or retracement lines with declining volme each day. Confucious say be very careful for the BULL smell like poop from behind.



And checout the QQQQ tring to back-fill the previous gap down. Looks similar to a GOOG chart. Can you say Puts with confidence at 45?

SIRI & XMSR

It's uncanny to me how similar SIRI & XMSR charts look on a 2 year basis. Yes a lot of people have been waiting for the government to act in order to combine these companies into a satellite radio monopoly. Well it looks like the FED's have stalled just long enough to kill any momentum in the stocks. I say sell the news when the FCC fianally allows the merger if you've been long SIRI and look for a better entry after the consolodation.

Will GOOG fill the gap down of 2/26/07?

GOOG appears to be back-filling the gap down of 2/26/07 and agian the FIB retracement and fan levels can give us a guidepost to ride calls and then enter puts. Near term resistance at 465 then a big fight at 480, intermediate resistance at 491, and a 3 year Fib retracement 38.2% level looms at 497. In other words it may go up, but it will be a painful Bull ride. Remember the overall trend is still a Bear market trend.

Set me up for a short........

The market ws at the top of this channel after the Fed meeting on Tuesday and the Earnings reports from a couple of Brokerage houses. The sell-off on Wednesday took most of those gains back bouncing off of the 50-Day EMA. Thursday is Quadrupple withching Options expirations and the beginning of a long Easter weekend and therefore could be a crazy volitile day. It would not surprise me to see the 50 Day EMA tested again, but that is as high as this market goes now. Get short with confidence at the Bigger Pain has yet to be distribritued.

FED bounce.........

All is Well?

Financial market stability?



Happy St. Patrick's Day

Are you freaking serious? Inflation cooling?

Now this is funny....Check-out the last MarketWatch headline link: "Euro-Zone inflation hits record annualized rate"

MarketWatch headlines after CPI data:

Countdown to the close:41min11sec
March 14, 2008 8:48 A.M.ET
BULLETIN
Stocks poised for higher openData show cooling inflation
Retail-level inflation moderates in February, with rate unchanged versus expectations for a 0.2% increase.
indicationsInflation data prove pleasing to Wall St.Stock futures turn on a dime, push into positive territory on the strength of positive inflation data. • Gold nudged higher Miners rise in London Mixed close in Asia• Euro-zone inflation hits record annualized rate of 3.3%

DO NOT GET SUCKED IN!!!!!!!!!

GOOG steps up and falls off a ramp

http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/intra?Symbol=GOOG&cs=&ci=None&gtyp=Candle&gs=Huge&event=1&gr=1&tic=5-year&int=95&i1=MACD&i2=MACDHist&i3=Stochastic&i4=rsi&e1=13&e2=50&e3=200&olay=None&x=61&y=11

The link above will should send you to a clearstation.com view of a 5 year weekly GOOG chart. Long term support about to be breached at $400 will send the GOOG downward spiral stair stepping to the basement of ????? At least $300 with bear flags along the way which are easily marked by the corresponding steps on the way up. Wait for the end of this Bull push which may last until the Tuesday Fed cut of 100 basis points which will confirms the $%^&-storm the American economy is really in. Sell the News!

Whipsaw mania.....

Today's action was something to behold. As for me it was better than watching an epic Ali/Frazier fight. I kept a close eye on the VIX today and it was uncanny how market momentum off and through resistance/support correlated to the VIX moving averages. The last two day's were basically an inverse of each other:
Wednesday - Up big sell-off late
Thursday - Down big early rise to the close

After all the commotion we are basically at the bottomside of the February range. Except now the Fed has spent a lot of bullets to get us to here, the news is just getting worse, companies like Carlyle going belly up with more to come, real commodity inflation soaring such as $4 gas. The markets may go higher for a few days, but overall I believe we are only setting up for a MONSTER fall.

The chart is of the SPY and illustrates how much overhead resistance remains.

Market Ticker tells it like it is:

"Disclosure: Neither long or short Fannie or Freddie at this point in time. No need to be; if they crack you can throw darts at the stock page of the WSJ for your short selection."

I guess what KD is trying to say is that this latest BULL-$%*# rally will fail miserably and to mark your long exit points accordingly.

As you can see by the charts of the SPY and DIA resistance is again found along Fib retracements. Interestingly enough the volume was light on the downside until the very end of the day. The 5 Day EMA beckons as support for most of the indices going into tomorrow and one could reasonably expect a bounce off this level to head back up to test today's highs and possibly push everything back into the ranges that held captive for February. With the lack of real economic data this week and the FED cutting 100 basis points next Tuesday I see a final Bull push coming before the January lows are passed like a college student going through Georgia on their way to the Florida Keys on Spring break.

Boing.......

Fib fans tell the story on the DIA..

The S&P found resistance at the bottomside of a retracement. Bottom-line is does this continue and for how long? It could be that this puts the markets back in the range we've been in since February. Nimble trading will pay and Calls are the flavor of the moment.

Citigroup to $14.25

How low will Citi go? The chart below illustrates a multi-year low for the big C and unfortunately my Ameritrade charting will not allow us to view farther back than 2003. If you take a look at thinkorswim you will find the next stop down to be a one week stint around $14.25 fifteen years ago. Can it blow through $14.25 all the way to $0.00? Sure, but where will it be 3-4 years from now? The first resistance on the way back up will be $24.50. No need to be in a hurry here until the 50 month EMA -$46.07 starts getting close to the 200 month EMA - $29.62.
Anyway, it may be time to start nibbling: financials - C, GS, BAC; home builders -TOL, KBH; and retailers -BBY, HD.
The tell for the all clear to buy will be increased volume as the big money starts moving in. Nibble, because we may see a bounce, but things are still heading SouthEast over this bear market.