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A place for friends to gather and view stock market charts, discuss technical analysis and market outlook. What is your Principal Asset? How can it be developed? Each and all should do their own due dilligence and homework before investing. And by no means should you use anything I say or show here as a sole basis to buy or sell securities as everything is for educational experience only.

Friday, June 13, 2008

AAPL Bull run over...for now

AAPL has been bouncing off this multi-year green trend line. The previous break sent the stock price to $115 and a repeat of this could be coming as the rumour of Steve Job's failing health continues. The fan lines and the short-term fibs give a compelling trade on the short side at anything from $172 to $176. A $20 point fall to $155 by September 1? Only catch is the PUTS are very expensive.

EUR/USD and the 10 year note.......

After the realase of the .6% rise in CPI the cheerladers of CNBC keep touting how it's good news inflation is rising and consumers are paying more for energy but spending less in other areas thus keeping prices low in those areas. They seem to think this is bullish news for the dollar.....
Perhaps so for the short-term jaw-boning of the media enhanced G8, but looking longer term into reality I think the chart below speaks for itself..........
.....and this multi-year chart of the ten year note appears to be a MASSIVE H&S pattern spanning decades. The latest move up is merely a retracement back to the shoulder-line and the more daunting line here is the falling 200 EMA which is still falling hard through 55. I don't see this busting throuh 52.50 any time soon. Higher rates to quell inflation you say? I think not. I believe the consumer has run out of gas globally and overall demand will cool and consumption will curtail pushing oil back to reality in the $80,s (that is after it hits $160). This could take awhile to unwind and it all hinges on oil now. So until black gold's upward assault faulters I'd be looking for Southeasterly movement from the indices.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Energy glimpse

Crude heading higher to at least $147.50 and the excuberance will probably carry it to the $150 mark.
Natural Gas is riding the Crude wave, but the long-term fan line has proven to create stong resistance and a consolodation back to $55 is quite possible in the coming weeks.
And lastly good ole GW has been riding the Nat gas wave. Look for the higher highs pattern to be broken soon. Of course one well placed hurricane and all these will tack on 20%-40% in a few days while the indices plummet.

Some telling index charts