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A place for friends to gather and view stock market charts, discuss technical analysis and market outlook. What is your Principal Asset? How can it be developed? Each and all should do their own due dilligence and homework before investing. And by no means should you use anything I say or show here as a sole basis to buy or sell securities as everything is for educational experience only.

Friday, March 14, 2008

Are you freaking serious? Inflation cooling?

Now this is funny....Check-out the last MarketWatch headline link: "Euro-Zone inflation hits record annualized rate"

MarketWatch headlines after CPI data:

Countdown to the close:41min11sec
March 14, 2008 8:48 A.M.ET
Stocks poised for higher openData show cooling inflation
Retail-level inflation moderates in February, with rate unchanged versus expectations for a 0.2% increase.
indicationsInflation data prove pleasing to Wall St.Stock futures turn on a dime, push into positive territory on the strength of positive inflation data. • Gold nudged higher Miners rise in London Mixed close in AsiaEuro-zone inflation hits record annualized rate of 3.3%


Thursday, March 13, 2008

GOOG steps up and falls off a ramp

The link above will should send you to a view of a 5 year weekly GOOG chart. Long term support about to be breached at $400 will send the GOOG downward spiral stair stepping to the basement of ????? At least $300 with bear flags along the way which are easily marked by the corresponding steps on the way up. Wait for the end of this Bull push which may last until the Tuesday Fed cut of 100 basis points which will confirms the $%^&-storm the American economy is really in. Sell the News!

Whipsaw mania.....

Today's action was something to behold. As for me it was better than watching an epic Ali/Frazier fight. I kept a close eye on the VIX today and it was uncanny how market momentum off and through resistance/support correlated to the VIX moving averages. The last two day's were basically an inverse of each other:
Wednesday - Up big sell-off late
Thursday - Down big early rise to the close

After all the commotion we are basically at the bottomside of the February range. Except now the Fed has spent a lot of bullets to get us to here, the news is just getting worse, companies like Carlyle going belly up with more to come, real commodity inflation soaring such as $4 gas. The markets may go higher for a few days, but overall I believe we are only setting up for a MONSTER fall.

The chart is of the SPY and illustrates how much overhead resistance remains.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Market Ticker tells it like it is:

"Disclosure: Neither long or short Fannie or Freddie at this point in time. No need to be; if they crack you can throw darts at the stock page of the WSJ for your short selection."

I guess what KD is trying to say is that this latest BULL-$%*# rally will fail miserably and to mark your long exit points accordingly.

As you can see by the charts of the SPY and DIA resistance is again found along Fib retracements. Interestingly enough the volume was light on the downside until the very end of the day. The 5 Day EMA beckons as support for most of the indices going into tomorrow and one could reasonably expect a bounce off this level to head back up to test today's highs and possibly push everything back into the ranges that held captive for February. With the lack of real economic data this week and the FED cutting 100 basis points next Tuesday I see a final Bull push coming before the January lows are passed like a college student going through Georgia on their way to the Florida Keys on Spring break.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008


Fib fans tell the story on the DIA..

The S&P found resistance at the bottomside of a retracement. Bottom-line is does this continue and for how long? It could be that this puts the markets back in the range we've been in since February. Nimble trading will pay and Calls are the flavor of the moment.

Citigroup to $14.25

How low will Citi go? The chart below illustrates a multi-year low for the big C and unfortunately my Ameritrade charting will not allow us to view farther back than 2003. If you take a look at thinkorswim you will find the next stop down to be a one week stint around $14.25 fifteen years ago. Can it blow through $14.25 all the way to $0.00? Sure, but where will it be 3-4 years from now? The first resistance on the way back up will be $24.50. No need to be in a hurry here until the 50 month EMA -$46.07 starts getting close to the 200 month EMA - $29.62.
Anyway, it may be time to start nibbling: financials - C, GS, BAC; home builders -TOL, KBH; and retailers -BBY, HD.
The tell for the all clear to buy will be increased volume as the big money starts moving in. Nibble, because we may see a bounce, but things are still heading SouthEast over this bear market.