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A place for friends to gather and view stock market charts, discuss technical analysis and market outlook. What is your Principal Asset? How can it be developed? Each and all should do their own due dilligence and homework before investing. And by no means should you use anything I say or show here as a sole basis to buy or sell securities as everything is for educational experience only.

Friday, October 2, 2009

XOM


Long


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EUR/USD





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GLD



All this talk about currencies devaluing nationally and internationally leads creedence to the MASSIVE inverse H&S pattern on GLD as seen in dotted red. One way to derive a target from this pattern is to draw a line from head to neckline as seen in green, duplicate it and then move it to the top of the necline as seen in green again. Curiously, that matches up with a fib fan line as well as a longterm Fib 161.8% line for a target of 130-135.

Okay, from 65 to 95 took a year, will 100 to 135 take a year?

FYI: Jan 2011 $110 Calls cost about $6.60 per contract.

That's 456 days with a stop below the 20 week SMA 94.20 as a break would negate the pattern.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Stockpickers Quarterly Update

Bruno has made an astounding move to catch up and bring the Long category within 1% in the 3rd quarter.  But getting creamed on the Short category for now as AMZN's upward move may be coming to an end this quarter.


AZO shorting the kiss


stop 147.03


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NFLX


Shorting Netflix


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POT


Trying to pick up some POT below $87.50


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Wednesday, September 30, 2009

$SPX





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$SPX


Why the range 1040-1080 is so important.

If you run a Fib retracement between the linger term Fib lines of 1014 and 1121 you can get an explanation of the latest price movements:

1080 and above is top third
1067 is the middle
1040 and below is lower third

Remember sideways action is also consolodation and can be viewed as Bullish.

Bottom line it is dangerous to get outright short until 1040 is solidly broken and even then suppot lies very close at 1014.


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Tuesday, September 29, 2009

EUR/USD





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Monday, September 28, 2009

MO 60 day/1hr





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GLD 60 day/ 1hr





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GLD - nibbling short-term


Phasing in short-term on GLD at 96.97 95.25, & 93.90.


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$TOBACO


For those of you holding MO (Altria) I stumbled across this Tobacco indusrty index which goes back to 2000. Very interesting on a weekly showing major support and upward trendline extension for another 10%. Also note that last weeks downward push was nothing but a gap fill from 3 weeks ago to the previous weekly high 5 weeks ago. Folks this is VERY BULLISH and tells me that MO below 17.50 is a steal for the move to 19.50 which could take 3-6 months. Those $17.50 Dec Calls bottomed out at around $0.52 on Friday and I plan on continuing to add on the lows and may pick up some in the money July 2010 if the price is right.


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