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A place for friends to gather and view stock market charts, discuss technical analysis and market outlook. What is your Principal Asset? How can it be developed? Each and all should do their own due dilligence and homework before investing. And by no means should you use anything I say or show here as a sole basis to buy or sell securities as everything is for educational experience only.

Friday, May 16, 2008

US Dollar stuck in an elevator going down........

So much for traveling abroad any time soon. Your hard earned cash is continung to be worth less and less globaly. And let's not even talk about inflation......

I guess we can expect to here alot more German and French as the Euro continues to set all time highs vesus the US dollar.
The YEN does show ome hope for the US Dollar, but remember the Japanese are still reeling from ther over-evaluatons of two decade ago. So they are in a simlar situation to the US, but actually save more than we do.
And lastly, our "Friends" the Canadians.......Do ya think in 2001 a US investment analyst could have said, "Covert all your US assets to Canadian Dollars and by 2008 I guarantee you will profit by 65%!"? Anyway I wonder how much oil they have stashed away? I think we should invade and nationalize professonal hockey. At least then we would be able to view a Stanley Cup Playoff game on a decent network. Go Penguins!!!!

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Crude going higher?

The ONLY thing you need to know about the price of crude - you already know.... Eventually it WILL go higher. Bottom line on crude is the Blue 50-day EMA. It has not been significantly penetrated in years. So oil may fall, but will invariably find support at continuing higher levels. And by the way, one well placed hurricane late will catapult the price to $150.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

The price of Options will be getting cheaper as the VIX continues to fall and the SPY heads North-East. The next point of resistance is at 16.04 and perhaps we will see a replay of the V-bottom which occured back in October 2007. Point being the end of this Bull run may be near in the next few days. Otherwise the VIX continues to plunge and market highs will be tested going into summer. It just does not add up: continued negative housing data, sub-prime threats still looming large, rising oil, falling dollar, rising inflation (grocery prices have largest month over month increase in 18 years), the Fed's hands are tied with infation and are hinting rate hikes are around corner.......

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Post #2 today: AMGN update

Market just posted some news on Dykstra's AMGN pick and it appears all that cash they are hoarding just got a rating haircut from Moody's:

MarketWatch News on AMGN
1:24 PM todayNew
Moody's cuts Amgen rating to 'A3/Prime-2' from 'A2/Prime-1' - MarketWatch
4 minutes ago
Moody's cuts Amgen rating to 'A3/Prime-2' from 'A2/Prime-1' - MarketWatch

So far the stock has not reacted that negatively, and is hanging on to the bottom of the channel line. The converging bold blue lines indicate an incomplete Bullish pattern which could propel the stock to the recent highs. I would imagine Dykstra's buy point on this will be met so we can watch how he does.....

DIA - S&P (60 day - 60 min)

As you can see by this 60-Day 60-min chart the S&P 500 is tracking the channels well and clinging to the the 50% channel line. 1420 is the 50% retracement line and could very well be the shorts last stand. But if it fails to convicingly trade above 1420 the higher highs and higher lows of this latest bull run will be restested.
The DIA also showing breaking below the current bull channels:

Monday, May 12, 2008

S&P 500 long term

Here's a longterm S&P chart going back to post WW II. It's uncanny how the year over year hugs the 50% fan line. As you can see the market pierced this line and has retraced to the underside. Also of note is the separation of the moving averages.