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A place for friends to gather and view stock market charts, discuss technical analysis and market outlook. What is your Principal Asset? How can it be developed? Each and all should do their own due dilligence and homework before investing. And by no means should you use anything I say or show here as a sole basis to buy or sell securities as everything is for educational experience only.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

How to play oil.....

Here are some ways to play oil. Options are available on all and the bid/ask spreads are not terrible.

And the VIX closing in on 100 nearly touching the 423.6% fibonacci line. I hope you are writing options if you can because the premiums are unreal.....

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Bear flag or bear trap?

Looking at a 60 min/60 day chart of the SPY one can see the trinangle trading range forming over the last couple of weeks. Normally, a pattern such as this is broken in the direction of the prevailing trend which is still bearish and thus could be termed a "bear flag". If this is the case a likely target for the S&P would be approximately 70.00.

If the triangle is broken counter-trend to the upside the important levels of resistance are the highs along the downward green trendline and then the 200 hour EMA

Here it is on a daily 3 month chart. Note the importance of the 20 day EMA...

The Dollar, Yen, & Euro

US dollar versus Yen
US dollar versus EURO

The greenback is getting stronger still.....Is this a good thing or bad? Should mean oil continues lower.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Oil, Agriculture, and the VIX

Crude is making a strong case for heading back to $65
While agriculture seems to have bottomed and begining to bounce - Here's the ETF - DBA

Here is arguably the best in breed - POT which appears to be finding support at the 23.6%fibonacci.
And finally the VIX which fell to the 20 day EMA. Tomorrow will be interesting if the bulls have a follow-through day this ema support will be broken...