XOM

CNBC reported a million share transaction on Exoon at the close on Friday. Now what would motivate someone to be long with approximately 70 million dollars?

As stated last week the increase in crude price was derived from the Fed printing money and devaluing the dollar, there is no more crude demand driving the price higher. However, from an oil producers point of view the price of crude going up no matter the reason still means more profits.

Chart wise we can see the formation of an ascending traingle where the current price is nearer the bottom trendline.

Looks to me like whoever it is is looking for a run to $75 and making a cool 8-9 million over the next month or so. I wonder if there stop loss is at the $65 level for a risk of $1 mill?

I like the odds here knowing the government has got your back. This is definitely worth cheking out a little further. Perhaps a "IN THE MONEY" vertical CALL spread October 55/60/65/70?

October 2009 Calls all moved more than 10% on Friday alone. Below are the ASK prices per contract at close:

So now we add the strike and the ask price and compare to the close price of $66.09 to see "Value" and or the "Premium" we will have to pay for the time value of the contract:

$55 + $14.15 = $69.15 - $66.09 = $ 3.06

$60 + $10.90 = $70.90 - $66.09 = $ 4.81

$65 +$8.15 = $73.15 - $66.09 = $ 7.06

$70 + $5.85 = $75.85 - $66.09 = $ 9.76

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More FED speak martket manipulation....

From The Associated Press:

"The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about Geithner's plan, said it will have three major parts. One part will be an effort Geithner spoke about last month which would be the creation of a public-private partnership to back purchases of bad assets by private investors.

A second part of the plan will expand a recently launched program being run by the Federal Reserve called the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF. That program is providing loans for investors to buy assets backed by consumer debt in an effort to make it easier for consumers to get auto, student and credit card loans. Under Geithner's proposal, this program would be expanded to support investors' purchases of banks' toxic assets.

The third part of the Geithner plan would utilize the resources of the FDIC, the agency that guarantees bank deposits, to purchase toxic assets.

When Geithner announced the administration's overhaul of the troubled financial rescue program on Feb. 10, it was widely panned by investors with the Dow Jones industrial average plunging by 380 points.

Geithner's new plan on toxic assets would attack what many analysts see as the major failing of the bank rescue effort so far, the failure to rid banks' of more than $1 trillion in bad loans and other troubled assets weighing down banks' books. As a result, banks have been unable to shake off the effects of the worst financial crisis to hit the country in seven decades."


Bottom-line is what they've done so far isn't working. They're scared, really scared. Could a major bank be in REAL trouble? And if a major bank failed what the market do? Imagine the fear of investors and the unmitigated selling that would take place. I was not complete on board with the naysayers predicting we could see 400 on the S&P 500, but now I beginning to see it as a real possibility. This kind of stuff being released on the weekend following a quadruple witching where the market was weakening is exactly why I shy away from trading on expiration weeks and have made it a rule to be OUT going into the new contract period. Imagine what all those people who loaded up short going into the close are thinking now. This news will probably pop the market higher to S&P 500 - 800 level, but I believe if it does it will fade in less than a week. If it breaks the 800 level though the bulls could be in control. Nonetheless it's another wait and see week, especially on Monday.

S&P 500

S&P 500 found support at converging 50/200 hour EMA's.

Bottom-line is if these lines do not hold get short till a pit stop at 732 and then back to 666 and perhaps lower.....

Risk/reward is definitely on the short side....

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Crude

So the US again prints money to stimulate the economy and thus devalues the dollar which drives the price of crude up. Do you think Bernanke and crew realized that Crude was at a critical technical level and "FALSELY" manipulated the crude market? All I'm saying is be VERY careful here because Crude breaking $50 is not based on any increasing global demand only the valuations of currencies.

Bottom line is this latest BULL run is nothing more than a mere Bear Flag set-up.

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$SPX 60 day - 60 min

There is not much reason to look at anything but the braoder market today as it is quarter end and Quadruple Witching for contract expirations. So the action on S&P 500 should contain some wild swings as trades are unwound.

Here it is plain to see that 805.32 holds significance as upward resistance. Question is will it break out or bounce back to find support at the converging 50/200 60-minute EMA's at 764.

Either way it is difficult to put money to work on days like today and worth te price of admission ($0) to be a spectator today looking into entry oints for next week.

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UUP

The Dollar may find support 24.7496

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EUR/USD

Euro/Dollar edging back to $1.3822.....Obamanomics....

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$TNX

Ten year note bounces hard off resistance

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$INDU end of day update

Did I say 7,400.......

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$SPX 2 year daily

Notice how the decline rate has increased - that's the difference from the dotted trend to the pink tinted trend....

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$SPX 6 month daily

S&P 500 uphill battle to be at 800-805...

Patience if you want to get short.....

It's way to late to get long, better opportunities are coming shortly...

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XLF weekly

Financials leading market today; however, it only appears to be setting up the same weekly pattern of bouncing of a channel up for a couple of weeks only to fall further.

The premise of wait till next week is still holding wheteher it is to go long or short....

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Boeing 20 year monthly

BA - there's not that much out there to get excited about, but occasionally I run across an anomaly while perusing charts.

This could take a couple of years, but the
2011 January $55 CALL ask is $2.10

wheras the DEEP IN THE MONEY
2011 January $30 call is $9.40

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Ben Bernanke on 60 minutes...

"But we do have a plan. We're working on it. And, I do think that we will get it stabilized, and we'll see the recession coming to an end probably this year."

Sounds a little weird to me....NOW they have a plan? Makes you wonder if they've been up in Washington sipping cocktails and jet setting around the world site-seeing and brainstorming how to get themselves out of this mess....."But we do have a plan. We're working on it."

I believe you now have several hundred thousand people out of work and probably millions globally who would gladly help in any way...."We have a plan"

He didn't say it was a good one.....and this reeks of uncertainty.....LOOKOUT........

Chart Swing Trader

Great weekend video review from the swing trader....almost 18 minutes of charts describing the setup goin into quadruple withcing expirations on Friday....

Chart Swing Trader

My view is the risk reward for next week is definitely on the bearish side; HOWEVER, I believe the action this week could be viewed as contrairian going forward into April. In other words, if the anticipated selloff next week is muted and fails to break to new lows one could view this as "The Bottom" and get cautiously long.

One thing is a given for next week....The financials WILL take the brunt of the selling going into Friday....