Kipplinger report.....

From the Kiplinger letter:
GDP growth
-1.8% in ‘09, contraction

Interest rates
Prime at 3.25% in ‘09,
10-year T-notes yielding 3%

Inflation
Declining in coming months

Unemployment
Rising to nearly 9% by ‘09’s end

Crude oil
Averaging $63/barrel in ‘09

On Energy:
"The slide in energy prices will come to an end as midyear approaches.
But increases will be modest…no repeat of 2008’s eye-popping price hikes.
So-so demand for motor fuel and the sidelining of big speculators spell moderation
in 2009 oil prices…in the neighborhood of $40-$60 a barrel…despite cuts in output.
Look for gasoline prices to bottom out within weeks, at about $1.60 a gallon,
national average. Then…climbing a few cents every week or so through Memorial Day.
We expect prices to crest near the $2 mark and hold there through early summer.
It’ll take a little longer for diesel prices to reverse course. They’ll slide 20¢
through spring to $2.25 a gallon, before heading toward $3 in summer. For the year,
diesel will run a buck or so less than 2008. Fuel surcharges will fall from 30% to 18%.
An OPEC for natural gas? Yep. Russia has succeeded in persuading African,
Middle Eastern, South American and European countries that produce natural gas
to form a cartel intended to give them more leverage over the commodity’s price.
But the group won’t wield the kind of power OPEC does over oil prices.
That’s because the price of natural gas closely parallels the price of crude oil,
which is far more broadly and extensively used. So no matter what a gas cartel does,
the biggest influence on the price of natural gas will be the going rate of a barrel of oil."


Housing sales
A small pickup during ‘09

Retail sales growth
Struggling to stay positive in ‘09

Trade deficit
$490 billion, 3.6% of GDP in ‘09