Principal Asset Development

Friday, May 22, 2009

$SPX - End of day update

I love it when a plan comes together....

If your long you can safely set a stop at 878.93

If your short you can safely set a stop at 897.97

Irregardless place a trade on either side of these lines:
Long above 897.9 and Short below 878.93. When they break a BIG, and I mean LARGE move will be made.

Have a Great & Safe Memorial Day Weekend

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PM - Looking toppy

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$SPX-Update

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Video worth a look......

Thursday, May 21, 2009

$SPX

YTD look shows how toppy...

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$SPX

The market has dandruff....the ranges are pretty clear

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Crude to $78.75

When it breaks the $62.81 level on a weak US dollar. Weak dollar means commodities going up........

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TGT

HUGE Head & Shoulders pattern on Target. Short with a stop at $43.25. And you can bet I'll be looking 3-6 months out for Puts at the $25 level.

COST is another one to watch with a similar topping reversal pattern potentially forming here as well....

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GS

If Goldman Sachs is leading the market, then tomorrow the wheels on the bus will be travelling through the hood and coming off. Can you see the H&S pattern over the last 5 days on this 10-day 1hr chart?

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

XLF @ S1 Pivot $11.88 - will it hold?

This level is also the bottom of this channel and a lot of white space beneath it.

It did not hold and is now resistance.

GLD - HIT weekly Pivot R1

XLF - Financials ETF

Ascending triangle to $13.18

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BAC

Long term look at BAC

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GLD - 2yr weekly

The 2yr weekly shows the battle GLD is having over the $90 price point. And a review of the Pivots posted earlier explains why. Take a look at all the $90 price points on the daily, weekly, and monthly pivots. I see getting long here on any pull back below $90 with a tight stop just below the bottom of the channel at say $89 and a loose stop just below the monthly pivot of $87.86. Short-term target of $94.50 - Long-term $99.89.

GLD

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GLD - Pivots

	Day	Week	Month	Quarter	Year
R3 = High + 2(Pivot - Low)	92.13	94.72	97.25	120.01	137.08
R2 = Pivot + (R1 - S1)	91.74	93.26	94.32	109.50	118.76
R1 = (2*Pivot) - Low	91.35	92.41	90.79	99.89	102.64
PIVOT = (High + Close + Low)/3	90.96	90.95	87.86	89.38	84.32
S1 = (2*Pivot) - High	90.57	90.10	84.33	79.77	68.20
S2 = Pivot - (R1 - S1)	90.18	88.64	81.40	69.26	49.88
S3 = Low - 2(Hi - Pivot)	89.79	87.79	77.87	59.65	33.76

PM

A waiting game here on PM as like the overall market it appears to be topping out. Lines in the sand on the way back down are 39.28 and 36.26. PM has gotten ahead of itself and a pullback to the 200 day EMA will just revitalize the BULLS as the 20 & 50 Day EMA's continue to rise to the 200 day ema which is currently at 40.75. And as the last post of the Pivots shows the Monthly R2 resides at 40.58 which will also act as support on the way back down.

PM - Pivots

	Day	Week	Month	Quarter	Year
R3 = High + 2(Pivot - Low)	43.37	47.60	42.20	55.58	75.75
R2 = Pivot + (R1 - S1)	43.05	45.46	40.58	49.99	64.99
R1 = (2*Pivot) - Low	42.63	44.32	38.39	42.78	53.94
PIVOT = (High + Close + Low)/3	42.31	42.18	36.77	37.19	43.18
S1 = (2*Pivot) - High	41.89	41.04	34.58	29.98	32.13
S2 = Pivot - (R1 - S1)	41.57	38.90	32.96	24.39	21.37
S3 = Low - 2(Hi - Pivot)	41.15	37.76	30.77	17.18	10.32

Monday, May 18, 2009

ProphetCharts: GOOG

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MSFT

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Friday, May 15, 2009

$INDU

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$SPX

Here's a closer look using some fibonacci levels. It's uncanny how they line up with yesterday's price action and the Monthly Pivots at 850 & 808 levels...

If you are short the plan could be to take half off at 850 and let the rest run to 808.

Happy Expiration Friday

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$SPX

Which way will it break? Above 5 day MA or below 20 day MA?

Yesterday could have been nothing but a retracement in the next Bear turn. If your long, better tighten stops. If your short, better tighten stops. In other words, nows a great time to Sit on Hands till Mother market decides which way the GPS is telling her to turn......

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Thursday, May 14, 2009

UNG

Nat gas rolling over....Short with a stop @ $16.89

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PCLN

Whether you're long or short the price that pays is $99.08

$SPX hourly with Monthly Pivots

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

A quick look at ETF’s on one page can instantly give you a place to look for trades and things to come. It’s pretty easy to see what sectors are topping, rolling over, and those that continue to trend higher. Look at the difference of the XLU and XLV versus the rest of the pack……Look for moves to healthcare and utilities.

ETF

UTH

10 times normal volume and NO price move?

Target $95

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Tuesday, May 12, 2009

$SPX 904

Bottom-line:

Get short if 904 fails

Get long at 909 if 904 holds and bounces off...

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Monday, May 11, 2009

AAPL

AAPL July $150 Calls

Zion Option - ZNQ-GW

I'd say it was a HUGE miss....
From $0.35 - $4.60 in one week.....
I hate to play the ifa-coulda-woulda-shoulda game but think-about it: $350 could now be $4600 in one week....

A Put play could be in order as the volume is waining...

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ZION

Looking to get $17.50 Calls IF ZION pulls back to $15.38.

NOT a buyer here as the move was missed and not a short candidate until above $ 22.10

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MSFT

Still a DOG that must hold $19.29

Pretty ugly weekly chart showing Microsoft could be rolling over to test the previous bottom of $14.87 and perhaps on a path to $10 if the overall market tests the lows of March.

The monthly pivots also show the possibility of testing the 50-week EMA at $21.58.

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Sunday, May 10, 2009

XLE

The market was driven up by the banks and Energy as technology actually sold off. But take a look at the volume on this weekly chart of the XLE. Pretty thin for such a big move....

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Saturday, May 9, 2009

SZC-RE

Perhaps another TELL:

Checkout the 20,000 volume surge Friday between 9:30-11:30am on a SPY $83 PUT.

UNE-FO

Here's a great feature on the Think or Swim trading platform.
How about a chart of option activity?

In this instance we're looking at the recent pop in underlying UNG using the Jun $15 Call.

Yep, May 6 - $0.95 - May 8 - $2.55 or 150% in TWO days. Look at the TELL of the volume in the second hour on May 6 and you'll see those late to the party could have gotten in at $1.15.

It may be time to take profits as the volume is waining....setting stop @ $2.45

Friday, May 8, 2009

SPY

Thursday, May 7, 2009

PM - Taking profits

Great call Bruno.....

UNG - Update

Take some profits and wait for the pullback to reload....

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

A look at the DOW 30

Take a look at the DOW 30 all together at once. You do not even have to look for symbols to see the divergences within the 30 to see that tech, homebuilders, and automotive are not participating in the run-up. It's also pretty easy to see the Financials are the reason for the latest moves. Question is since all the Stress Test data has been leaked; will the market Sell the news?