Long term crude and the dollar....

Crude oil may be in for a resbit, however the long term trend is still higher. If you are not a believer in Fib lines perhaps this chart will sway your opinion........
Yes that is correct.....In 1997 one could have reasonably predicted Crude would reach $145. Now let's take a look how this impacted the EUR/DOL....
Very interesting indeed......

Long the dollar short crude fr the time being?

AMGN blast rolling over

The 5 year weekly chart shows the fall and retracement. This marks some fairly close entry and stop marks for a PUT trade.
The daily chart magnifies things a bit in relation to the fib levels.

QQQQ's update and KO on Coke

The inverse Head & Shoulders pattern is intact and setting up for shorts soon:

But for those who are impatient Coca-Cola puts may be in order tomorrow. Be prudent and place a tight stop:

Decision making time for the market.....

Big decision day for the markets as economic data abounds prior to open Thursday:

-ECB announcnement
-Chain store sales
-Unemployment Claims

and at 10:00 am:
-Pending Home Sales
-Natural Gas report
-Consumer Credit

Crude is setting up for interim bounce off of Fib level and will resume downtrend after test of $121.50....Lookout $110 and top of 200 day EMA coming soon:
The VIX will tell the tale if the bottom is in or not:
The major indices are all brushing under their 50 day EMA's with the exception of the stronger IWM which has broken barely above:

Great clip on Cramer's bottom call

Smokers Split, Nibbling Nat Gas & OMG Amgen....

For the smokers in the crowd let's take a look at Altria and Phillip Morris:

Altria, MO, appears to be consolodating nicely under the short term resistance at $21.28 here for a call setup with a somewhat close stop at $20.20.
On the other hand PM is looking toppy and can be shorted with confidence above $53.25 setting a stop above the 78.6% fib level or $53.60 or so.
And for those energy suckers one could reasonably start nibbling at UNG as the falling knife could have hit the floor at the 38.2% fib level at $41.42. Don't forget the TIGHT stop here at $41.29!!! Because if it breaks here lookout for the next fib level at $38.29.
And then there's Amgen: This one was brought to us back in May by our deep in the money calls mentor Mr. Dykstra. On May 14, 2008 one could have purchased the Octber $40 calls for $5 per contract. Yes folks those same calls tomorrow will be worth approximately $22 per contract for a four bagger. Yes there is hope and it can be done..............................

QQQQ

Pharmas: They can go lower.........

Long term charts of Pfizer, Merck, and Amgen show the probability of continued lower trends. Basically there is just no bullish momemtum in the pharmaceuticals whick could be attributed to the coming election and the possible coming onslught of Democratic attacks on healthcare costs. Perhaps the more accurate reasons are the lack of Pipeline drugs in Phizer and Merck. Amgen is probably the most healthy of the three in the pipeline category and thus indicates the stronger of the three charts at this point.

AMGN may test $57 before consolodating back into the $40's where a good buy point for calls may be the bottom of this stil falling trend.

Bounce?

Looking at the VIX and especially the Green trendline which is acting as reisisitance one could reasonably ascertain a VIX fall and the corresponding index bounce. Conversely a break of this line higher means more bull pain.

AAPL Bull run over...for now

AAPL has been bouncing off this multi-year green trend line. The previous break sent the stock price to $115 and a repeat of this could be coming as the rumour of Steve Job's failing health continues. The fan lines and the short-term fibs give a compelling trade on the short side at anything from $172 to $176. A $20 point fall to $155 by September 1? Only catch is the PUTS are very expensive.

EUR/USD and the 10 year note.......

After the realase of the .6% rise in CPI the cheerladers of CNBC keep touting how it's good news inflation is rising and consumers are paying more for energy but spending less in other areas thus keeping prices low in those areas. They seem to think this is bullish news for the dollar.....
Perhaps so for the short-term jaw-boning of the media enhanced G8, but looking longer term into reality I think the chart below speaks for itself..........
.....and this multi-year chart of the ten year note appears to be a MASSIVE H&S pattern spanning decades. The latest move up is merely a retracement back to the shoulder-line and the more daunting line here is the falling 200 EMA which is still falling hard through 55. I don't see this busting throuh 52.50 any time soon. Higher rates to quell inflation you say? I think not. I believe the consumer has run out of gas globally and overall demand will cool and consumption will curtail pushing oil back to reality in the $80,s (that is after it hits $160). This could take awhile to unwind and it all hinges on oil now. So until black gold's upward assault faulters I'd be looking for Southeasterly movement from the indices.

Energy glimpse

Crude heading higher to at least $147.50 and the excuberance will probably carry it to the $150 mark.
Natural Gas is riding the Crude wave, but the long-term fan line has proven to create stong resistance and a consolodation back to $55 is quite possible in the coming weeks.
And lastly good ole GW has been riding the Nat gas wave. Look for the higher highs pattern to be broken soon. Of course one well placed hurricane and all these will tack on 20%-40% in a few days while the indices plummet.

Some telling index charts

SPY, DIA, QQQQ, & PG - It's a channel thing...

Check out the retracement of the majors to the mid-channel line. Will it break?


I'm throwing Proctor & Gamble in here for the H&S pattern and test of the Fib level. Lately I've seen more failed H&S patterns. It would not surprise me to see PG head back to $67 after this latest downward move fizzles.
Have a Great Memorial Day weekend.

The VIX and Fibs......

Yesterday the VIX bounced off of the Fibonacci 23.6% or $16.04. Coincidende you say? I think not. Amazingly the PPI comes out "Hot" and now the media is propagating the Inflation story and the Dow falls almost 200 points and the VIX is back to $18 before lunch.

GLW, DD, JNJ, & DIS

GM versus Ford

GM continues to struggle and appears to be heading for a test of the recent lows.
Ford is looking a little stronger and could be posting a bull flag here to jump to the double digits. The tell will be the direction when volume reappears.

Where are the old leaders going? AAPL & GOOG

Will AAPL rollover insde the box continuing the H&S patterm or continue higher? Either way AAPL's due for a sucstantial short-term move. Roll-over equtes to the red box and Bull run flag (indicated by the pink oval) move would project AAPL to the green box and all time new highs.
GOOG is still lumbering around consolodating and could very well fill the gap up$450-$600 or make the Bull flag jump back into the $700 range.
I believe these companies will tell the tale of the overall market in the coming days and weeks. Irregardless of direction a disceranble trend will emerge and markets will follow.

What will be the catalyst?

US Dollar stuck in an elevator going down........

So much for traveling abroad any time soon. Your hard earned cash is continung to be worth less and less globaly. And let's not even talk about inflation......

I guess we can expect to here alot more German and French as the Euro continues to set all time highs vesus the US dollar.
The YEN does show ome hope for the US Dollar, but remember the Japanese are still reeling from ther over-evaluatons of two decade ago. So they are in a simlar situation to the US, but actually save more than we do.
And lastly, our "Friends" the Canadians.......Do ya think in 2001 a US investment analyst could have said, "Covert all your US assets to Canadian Dollars and by 2008 I guarantee you will profit by 65%!"? Anyway I wonder how much oil they have stashed away? I think we should invade and nationalize professonal hockey. At least then we would be able to view a Stanley Cup Playoff game on a decent network. Go Penguins!!!!