ETFC: Are you Freaking Crazy?

Definitely a very speculative play, but hey somebody has already double-upped plus from the bottom of $2.10. The 15-Day SMA - 4.19 has crossed the 50-Day SMA - 3.80 and appears to be turning higher. The 200-day SMA is will not be in play for sometime so one we will have to rely on the Fib levels.

Looking at the 5 year you can get a sense of the dramatic sell-off that took place. A positve note is that ETFC is about to break that downward spiral of a channel. Maybe. It could very well retreat to the lows.

The Magic # appears to be $5.50 and ETFC could tear up to $6.35 then $7.35.

A possible entry here would be $4.60-4.75 with a tight Stop @ $4.25. Hmmmmm, is that stop level a coincidence? Exactly a double from the bottom less trading fees.

5 Year

9 Month

3 Month
1 Month

GW & Bruno's itch @ $5.85

The bottom line here is the 15 day SMA - 5.89 & the 50 day SMA - 5.52 have turned positive. One would expect GW to make an assault toward the 200 day SMA - $6.61.

If you look at the 5 year chart you can see the channel from $5-$6.5. Take note that GW is on the high side of this channe and likely to hit huge long term resistance @ $6.5. If it breaks through the upside resistance resides @ $7 then $8.50.

Taking note of GW's affinity for the middle FIB line on the 3 month a possible buy order around the $5.85 level may cacth an intraday low in this higher trend. An absolute must would be a Stop @ $5.50 and even tighter @ $5.70.

GW 3 Month

GW 1 Month

GW 5 YearGW 1 year
G 2yr with FIBS
GW 1 yr with Fibs
GW 6 Month with Fibs

The VIX

The VIX is important because it measures the volatility of the market. Volatility is simlply confidence level: decision versus indecision, confidence versus confusion. The more confident the market is in its direction the lower the VIX will be; the less confident the higher the VIX will be.

Market volatility has a direct correlation with the cost of Option contracts. If volatility and uncertainty are high - Options will be more expensive. However, it is in uncertain times the most profit in the shortest time span can be made.

AAPL: The downward spiral through 112 to 91

As seen by the charts below our beloved AAPL is in a world of $@&^! And as the title of this posts suggests I believe we may see a brief pause at 112 and ultimately a completion of a poorly formed one year Head & Shoulders top.

Head - 205
Neckline - 150
Sholders - 125

And in this case the smelly armpit of 91 for a trough.

It may be safe to belly up to the trough and be Long Call Pigs for awhile when it finally reaches the low 90's. In the mean time I feel pretty confident we can ride PUTS and be short as long as tight stops are kept. Remember nothing goes straight up or down.

Dow Channel Lines

This Dow chart has been zoomed in to try to show the bottom channel over a longer term. Unfortunately, my charting software historical data only goes back as far as 10-28-2002. So this is not exactly what I would consider "long term". If you have not looked at any 10 & 20 year charts of the major indicies you may want to reconsider. I'll try and figure out a way to post some.

In the mean time how bout a little off color humor:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYxvVe9y5NQ

Russel 2000 Channel Lines

I'm posting this Russel 20000 chart to check out the different charting software.

What a day to Start.......

I'm just starting up here so BEAR with me as I learn how to manipulate this space. Please check out the links section to the right as there are a few educational links you will definitely find helpful.

The charts below can be blown up in size by clicking on them:

GLW

IWM

SPY

DIA

Please add some comments and any sugestions as this is definitely a work in progress.

http://www.slopeofhope.com/

http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/

http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/