EUR/USD and the 10 year note.......

After the realase of the .6% rise in CPI the cheerladers of CNBC keep touting how it's good news inflation is rising and consumers are paying more for energy but spending less in other areas thus keeping prices low in those areas. They seem to think this is bullish news for the dollar.....
Perhaps so for the short-term jaw-boning of the media enhanced G8, but looking longer term into reality I think the chart below speaks for itself..........
.....and this multi-year chart of the ten year note appears to be a MASSIVE H&S pattern spanning decades. The latest move up is merely a retracement back to the shoulder-line and the more daunting line here is the falling 200 EMA which is still falling hard through 55. I don't see this busting throuh 52.50 any time soon. Higher rates to quell inflation you say? I think not. I believe the consumer has run out of gas globally and overall demand will cool and consumption will curtail pushing oil back to reality in the $80,s (that is after it hits $160). This could take awhile to unwind and it all hinges on oil now. So until black gold's upward assault faulters I'd be looking for Southeasterly movement from the indices.

Energy glimpse

Crude heading higher to at least $147.50 and the excuberance will probably carry it to the $150 mark.
Natural Gas is riding the Crude wave, but the long-term fan line has proven to create stong resistance and a consolodation back to $55 is quite possible in the coming weeks.
And lastly good ole GW has been riding the Nat gas wave. Look for the higher highs pattern to be broken soon. Of course one well placed hurricane and all these will tack on 20%-40% in a few days while the indices plummet.

Some telling index charts

SPY, DIA, QQQQ, & PG - It's a channel thing...

Check out the retracement of the majors to the mid-channel line. Will it break?


I'm throwing Proctor & Gamble in here for the H&S pattern and test of the Fib level. Lately I've seen more failed H&S patterns. It would not surprise me to see PG head back to $67 after this latest downward move fizzles.
Have a Great Memorial Day weekend.

The VIX and Fibs......

Yesterday the VIX bounced off of the Fibonacci 23.6% or $16.04. Coincidende you say? I think not. Amazingly the PPI comes out "Hot" and now the media is propagating the Inflation story and the Dow falls almost 200 points and the VIX is back to $18 before lunch.

GLW, DD, JNJ, & DIS

GM versus Ford

GM continues to struggle and appears to be heading for a test of the recent lows.
Ford is looking a little stronger and could be posting a bull flag here to jump to the double digits. The tell will be the direction when volume reappears.

Where are the old leaders going? AAPL & GOOG

Will AAPL rollover insde the box continuing the H&S patterm or continue higher? Either way AAPL's due for a sucstantial short-term move. Roll-over equtes to the red box and Bull run flag (indicated by the pink oval) move would project AAPL to the green box and all time new highs.
GOOG is still lumbering around consolodating and could very well fill the gap up$450-$600 or make the Bull flag jump back into the $700 range.
I believe these companies will tell the tale of the overall market in the coming days and weeks. Irregardless of direction a disceranble trend will emerge and markets will follow.

What will be the catalyst?

US Dollar stuck in an elevator going down........

So much for traveling abroad any time soon. Your hard earned cash is continung to be worth less and less globaly. And let's not even talk about inflation......

I guess we can expect to here alot more German and French as the Euro continues to set all time highs vesus the US dollar.
The YEN does show ome hope for the US Dollar, but remember the Japanese are still reeling from ther over-evaluatons of two decade ago. So they are in a simlar situation to the US, but actually save more than we do.
And lastly, our "Friends" the Canadians.......Do ya think in 2001 a US investment analyst could have said, "Covert all your US assets to Canadian Dollars and by 2008 I guarantee you will profit by 65%!"? Anyway I wonder how much oil they have stashed away? I think we should invade and nationalize professonal hockey. At least then we would be able to view a Stanley Cup Playoff game on a decent network. Go Penguins!!!!

Crude going higher?

The ONLY thing you need to know about the price of crude - you already know.... Eventually it WILL go higher. Bottom line on crude is the Blue 50-day EMA. It has not been significantly penetrated in years. So oil may fall, but will invariably find support at continuing higher levels. And by the way, one well placed hurricane late will catapult the price to $150.

The price of Options will be getting cheaper as the VIX continues to fall and the SPY heads North-East. The next point of resistance is at 16.04 and perhaps we will see a replay of the V-bottom which occured back in October 2007. Point being the end of this Bull run may be near in the next few days. Otherwise the VIX continues to plunge and market highs will be tested going into summer. It just does not add up: continued negative housing data, sub-prime threats still looming large, rising oil, falling dollar, rising inflation (grocery prices have largest month over month increase in 18 years), the Fed's hands are tied with infation and are hinting rate hikes are around corner.......

Post #2 today: AMGN update

Market just posted some news on Dykstra's AMGN pick and it appears all that cash they are hoarding just got a rating haircut from Moody's:

MarketWatch News on AMGN
1:24 PM todayNew
Moody's cuts Amgen rating to 'A3/Prime-2' from 'A2/Prime-1' - MarketWatch
4 minutes ago
Moody's cuts Amgen rating to 'A3/Prime-2' from 'A2/Prime-1' - MarketWatch

So far the stock has not reacted that negatively, and is hanging on to the bottom of the channel line. The converging bold blue lines indicate an incomplete Bullish pattern which could propel the stock to the recent highs. I would imagine Dykstra's buy point on this will be met so we can watch how he does.....

DIA - S&P (60 day - 60 min)

As you can see by this 60-Day 60-min chart the S&P 500 is tracking the channels well and clinging to the the 50% channel line. 1420 is the 50% retracement line and could very well be the shorts last stand. But if it fails to convicingly trade above 1420 the higher highs and higher lows of this latest bull run will be restested.
The DIA also showing breaking below the current bull channels:

S&P 500 long term

Here's a longterm S&P chart going back to post WW II. It's uncanny how the year over year hugs the 50% fan line. As you can see the market pierced this line and has retraced to the underside. Also of note is the separation of the moving averages.

DIA & ACH

The DOW is facing an imortant line in this uptrend. Will it hold?
Checkout ACH this could double this year IF the global growth picture continues.

Dykstra's AMGN pick

Our favorite Deep in the money former hard-nose baseball player is currently picking AMGN for his next Call. By taking a look at the different time frames one can see that he may be on to something here. The 10 year monthly chart below shows AMGN basing on the 200 month EMA.
The 5 year weekly shows the lackluster strength of the latest bull move off multi-year lows into the mid-channel off the last fall on low volume.
The 6 month Daily makes it intesting with the flattening out of the 5-day, 20-day, 50-Day EMA's. It is pounding the underside of the 50-Day and could make themove back to the 200-Day EMA at $48.50 in a hurry once it clears with volume.
The 10-Day - 10 min chart shows the retracement of the latest bull charge finding support and bouncing off the 50% line an making higher highs and higher lows.

DIA trend, GOOG & AAPL H&S patterns

The current uptrend on the DOW is hitting a retracement level. It is uncanny how the channel lines give us price levels for trading.
GOOG may bounce off the $61o level and fill the gap up from $500 or one could view the forming of a H&S pattern topping here and back to $420 GOOG goes.....
AAPL may be forming an inverterd H&S pattern and could finish the run to test new highs only to fall back to the $160 level.

Waiting on the FED

Again we are "waiting on the FED" to make a predicted 25 basis point cut and "move" the markets. Question is which way will the following 400 point DOW move be?

Patiently Waiting for PPI & CPI...

Markets are still range bound and oscilating near the middle of the YTD ranges. As10% plus haircut earnings from the likes of AA, UPS, & GE combine with additional writedowns in the billions from Wacovia the Bull fantasy is losing steam. Question is what will be the catalyst for the next major leg down? How about hot PPI (Tuesday pre-market)and CPI (Wednesday pre-market)? This should lend an interesting end to Options expiration week!

Market is like a stool.....

Sorry for not posting lately, but basically it's just been a waiting game. All the bad economic data is "Priced in" (insert coughing sound BS here) and most knowledgheable economists are now stating we are in a recession. Which by the way the average recession last six months and the market barely corrected 20%. Wow from where I stand the farmer is still on the stool milking this cow, but he's missing a leg off his three-legged stool (that would be consumer spending). Anyway there is no real reason to post charts of the same range-bound market we've been in since the first of the year. We are at the top side of the range and the market is getting tired on low volume.

The question is will it retest the lows or blow right through them? I don't know who said it but the quote applies, "there are no such things as triple bottoms or tops"!