What about coal?
For the Web's best interactive charts, please visit http://www.Prophet.Net
Blog description
- Rodney
- A place for friends to gather and view stock market charts, discuss technical analysis and market outlook. What is your Principal Asset? How can it be developed? Each and all should do their own due dilligence and homework before investing. And by no means should you use anything I say or show here as a sole basis to buy or sell securities as everything is for educational experience only.
Friday, January 23, 2009
GE
Best in breed or just another bohemoth? GE gives another look at where we are regarding energy. And again it's amazing how Fibonacci levels provide trading ranges over multi time frames. From $0.37 - $$48.73.....WOW
Can you see going long with a stop of $11.79?
For the Web's best interactive charts, please visit http://www.Prophet.Net
Thursday, January 22, 2009
XLE
Interesting chart of the XLE Energy ETF. This 10 yr monthly chart shows we are at the bottom of an up trend and just barely hanging on....Long here using the 200 monthly average as a stop?
For the Web's best interactive charts, please visit http://www.Prophet.Net
Monday, January 19, 2009
Kipplinger report.....
From the Kiplinger letter:
GDP growth
-1.8% in ‘09, contraction
Interest rates
Prime at 3.25% in ‘09,
10-year T-notes yielding 3%
Inflation
Declining in coming months
Unemployment
Rising to nearly 9% by ‘09’s end
Crude oil
Averaging $63/barrel in ‘09
On Energy:
"The slide in energy prices will come to an end as midyear approaches.
But increases will be modest…no repeat of 2008’s eye-popping price hikes.
So-so demand for motor fuel and the sidelining of big speculators spell moderation
in 2009 oil prices…in the neighborhood of $40-$60 a barrel…despite cuts in output.
Look for gasoline prices to bottom out within weeks, at about $1.60 a gallon,
national average. Then…climbing a few cents every week or so through Memorial Day.
We expect prices to crest near the $2 mark and hold there through early summer.
It’ll take a little longer for diesel prices to reverse course. They’ll slide 20¢
through spring to $2.25 a gallon, before heading toward $3 in summer. For the year,
diesel will run a buck or so less than 2008. Fuel surcharges will fall from 30% to 18%.
An OPEC for natural gas? Yep. Russia has succeeded in persuading African,
Middle Eastern, South American and European countries that produce natural gas
to form a cartel intended to give them more leverage over the commodity’s price.
But the group won’t wield the kind of power OPEC does over oil prices.
That’s because the price of natural gas closely parallels the price of crude oil,
which is far more broadly and extensively used. So no matter what a gas cartel does,
the biggest influence on the price of natural gas will be the going rate of a barrel of oil."
Housing sales
A small pickup during ‘09
Retail sales growth
Struggling to stay positive in ‘09
Trade deficit
$490 billion, 3.6% of GDP in ‘09
GDP growth
-1.8% in ‘09, contraction
Interest rates
Prime at 3.25% in ‘09,
10-year T-notes yielding 3%
Inflation
Declining in coming months
Unemployment
Rising to nearly 9% by ‘09’s end
Crude oil
Averaging $63/barrel in ‘09
On Energy:
"The slide in energy prices will come to an end as midyear approaches.
But increases will be modest…no repeat of 2008’s eye-popping price hikes.
So-so demand for motor fuel and the sidelining of big speculators spell moderation
in 2009 oil prices…in the neighborhood of $40-$60 a barrel…despite cuts in output.
Look for gasoline prices to bottom out within weeks, at about $1.60 a gallon,
national average. Then…climbing a few cents every week or so through Memorial Day.
We expect prices to crest near the $2 mark and hold there through early summer.
It’ll take a little longer for diesel prices to reverse course. They’ll slide 20¢
through spring to $2.25 a gallon, before heading toward $3 in summer. For the year,
diesel will run a buck or so less than 2008. Fuel surcharges will fall from 30% to 18%.
An OPEC for natural gas? Yep. Russia has succeeded in persuading African,
Middle Eastern, South American and European countries that produce natural gas
to form a cartel intended to give them more leverage over the commodity’s price.
But the group won’t wield the kind of power OPEC does over oil prices.
That’s because the price of natural gas closely parallels the price of crude oil,
which is far more broadly and extensively used. So no matter what a gas cartel does,
the biggest influence on the price of natural gas will be the going rate of a barrel of oil."
Housing sales
A small pickup during ‘09
Retail sales growth
Struggling to stay positive in ‘09
Trade deficit
$490 billion, 3.6% of GDP in ‘09
Friday, January 9, 2009
AMZN: Inverse H&S
AMZN is sporting a fairly massive inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. The first chart is:
I think it's pretty AMaZiNg how the multi year Fibonacci lines come in play. Pretty EZ to find a price point to trade.
So here is a closer look at a
Again, if you were just looking at daily charts would you have caught the pattern?
I'm going to look into some long CALLS and set some low purchase points to hopefully pick up some shares sub$45 or just above the 23.6% fib line of $43.60. Then use the $43.60 as a reference for placing stops.
EZ Money
5 year weekly
I think it's pretty AMaZiNg how the multi year Fibonacci lines come in play. Pretty EZ to find a price point to trade.So here is a closer look at a
2 year daily
Again, if you were just looking at daily charts would you have caught the pattern?I'm going to look into some long CALLS and set some low purchase points to hopefully pick up some shares sub$45 or just above the 23.6% fib line of $43.60. Then use the $43.60 as a reference for placing stops.
EZ Money
Monday, January 5, 2009
Up/Down as GNR says, "Where do we go now?"
From a knowledgeable trader - "Oil is going back up, Nat. gas??? Still struggling to figure out this near term market with the political winds swirling in no particular direction"
By looking at a 10 year monthly oil chart I can't say oil is up here, but I can say it will be going up...albeit eventually...6-9 months I can easily see $100.
Let's start the year with a look at the majors in various time frames:
$VIX-weekly
By looking at a 10 year monthly oil chart I can't say oil is up here, but I can say it will be going up...albeit eventually...6-9 months I can easily see $100.Let's start the year with a look at the majors in various time frames:
SPY: monthly
$INDU-daily
QQQQ-monthly
$INDU-daily
QQQQ-monthly
check out the descending Green wedge
IWM-monthly
IWM-monthly
$VIX-weekly
Head & Shoulders?
Well the telling chart out of the above 6 has to be the VIX. If that H&S pattern comes to fruition it means an upward trend of a calming nature for the short term. Long term implications depend on the completion of the pattern and its ultimate failure. If the H&S pattern completes and then fails the short term calm will be "right shouldered" with a slight down turn in the markets. Then the tricky part the impending failure could bounce off neck line support and shoot the VIX back toward its highs pummeling the market or it could continue the trend downward calming and sending the overall market higher creating demand and thus rising oil and commodities again as the next/first Bull/Obama market begins in earnest. Best of luck to you all.
And for the marine history buff an update on the Hunley:
CSI Hunley: Fate of historic sub a cold case file
By BRUCE SMITHThe Associated Press
Jan 5, 2009
NORTH CHARLESTON, S.C. --
It could be one of the nation's oldest cold case files: What happened to eight Confederate sailors aboard the H.L. Hunley after it became the first submarine in history to sink an enemy warship? Their hand-cranked sub rammed a spar with black powder into the Union blockade ship Housatonic off Charleston on a chilly winter night in 1864 but never returned. Its fate has been the subject of almost 150 years of conjecture and almost a decade of scientific research since the Hunley was raised back in 2000. But the submarine has been agonizingly slow surrendering her secrets. "She was a mystery when she was built. She was a mystery as to how she looked and how she was constructed for many years and she is still a mystery as to why she didn't come home," said state Sen. Glenn McConnell, R-Charleston and chairman of the South Carolina Hunley Commission, which raised the sub and is charged with conserving and displaying it. Scientists hope the next phase of the conservation, removing the hardened sediment coating the outside of the hull, will provide clues to the mystery. McConnell, who watched the sub being raised more than eight years ago, thought at the time the mystery would be easily solved. "We thought it would be very simple ... something must have happened at the time of the attack," he said. "We would just put those pieces together and know everything about it." But what seemed so clear then seems as murky now as the sandy bottom where the Hunley rested for 136 years. When the Hunley was raised, the design was different from what scientists expected and there were only eight, not nine, crewmen, as originally thought. The first phase of work on the Hunley consisted of photographing and studying the outside of the hull. Then several iron hull plates were removed allowing scientists to enter the crew compartment to remove sediment, human remains and a cache of artifacts. Thousands of people, many re-enactors in period dress, turned out in April 2004 when the crew was buried in what has been called the last Confederate funeral. With the inside excavated, the outside of the hull will now be cleaned before the sub is put in a chemical bath to remove salts left by years on the ocean floor. The Hunley will eventually be displayed in a new museum in North Charleston. Archaeologist Maria Jacobsen said the Hunley is like a crime scene except that, unlike on television shows, there is no smoking gun. "If we compare this crime site investigation with, say, a tragic plane crash in the mountains, that investigation would be a lot easier," she said. "You can go to the crash you can see the metal pieces and they have the fingerprints of the crash site." In the case of the Hunley, some of those fingerprints may be covered with the encrusted sediment on the hull that scientists refer to as concretion. When the sub was found there was no window in the front conning tower, suggesting it had been shot out, perhaps by Union sharpshooters. But no glass was found inside the sub and the remains of the captain, Lt. George Dixon, showed no injuries to his skull or body consistent with being shot while looking through the window, McConnell said. The crew's bodies were found at their duty stations, suggesting there was no emergency resulting in a scramble to get out of the sub. And the controls on the bilge pump were not set to pump water from the crew compartment, suggesting there was no water flooding in. After the attack both Confederates on shore and Union ships reported seeing a blue light, believed to be the Hunley signaling it had completed its mission. A lantern with a thick lens that would have shifted the light spectrum and appeared blue from a distance was found in the wreck. But after the attack, the USS Canandaigua rushed to the aide of the Housatonic and there is speculation that the light could have come from that ship instead. Could the Canandaigua have grazed the Hunley, disabling her so the sub couldn't surface? A good look at the hull in the coming months may provide the answer. Historians also know the Hunley needed to wait for the incoming tide to return to shore. "Were they waiting down there and miscalculated their oxygen and blacked out?" said McConnell. He said a grappling hook, believed to serve as an anchor of the Hunley, was found near the wreck. Cleaning the hull may produce evidence of a rope showing the sub was anchored, perhaps waiting for the tide to change. Then there is the mystery of Dixon's watch, which stopped at 8:23 p.m. Although times were far from uniform in the Civil War era, the Housatonic was attacked about 20 minutes later, according to federal time, McConnell said. One theory is the concussion of the attack stopped the watch and knocked out the sailors on the sub. Or the watch simply might have run down and was not noticed in the excitement of the attack. That could have led to a miscalculation of the time they were under water. Union troops reported seeing the Hunley approaching and the light through the tower window "like dinosaur eyes or a giant porpoise in the water," McConnell said. If the Hunley crew miscalculated and surfaced too close to the Housatonic on their final approach they would not have had enough time to replenish their oxygen before the attack, he said. The clues now seem to indicate the crew died of anoxia, a lack of oxygen, and didn't drown. "Whatever happened, happened unexpectedly, with no warning," McConnell said. Running out of oxygen can quickly cause unconsciousness. "One you reach that critical stage, it's like you flick a switch," he said. "It's that fast, like on an airplane
It could be one of the nation's oldest cold case files: What happened to eight Confederate sailors aboard the H.L. Hunley after it became the first submarine in history to sink an enemy warship? Their hand-cranked sub rammed a spar with black powder into the Union blockade ship Housatonic off Charleston on a chilly winter night in 1864 but never returned. Its fate has been the subject of almost 150 years of conjecture and almost a decade of scientific research since the Hunley was raised back in 2000. But the submarine has been agonizingly slow surrendering her secrets. "She was a mystery when she was built. She was a mystery as to how she looked and how she was constructed for many years and she is still a mystery as to why she didn't come home," said state Sen. Glenn McConnell, R-Charleston and chairman of the South Carolina Hunley Commission, which raised the sub and is charged with conserving and displaying it. Scientists hope the next phase of the conservation, removing the hardened sediment coating the outside of the hull, will provide clues to the mystery. McConnell, who watched the sub being raised more than eight years ago, thought at the time the mystery would be easily solved. "We thought it would be very simple ... something must have happened at the time of the attack," he said. "We would just put those pieces together and know everything about it." But what seemed so clear then seems as murky now as the sandy bottom where the Hunley rested for 136 years. When the Hunley was raised, the design was different from what scientists expected and there were only eight, not nine, crewmen, as originally thought. The first phase of work on the Hunley consisted of photographing and studying the outside of the hull. Then several iron hull plates were removed allowing scientists to enter the crew compartment to remove sediment, human remains and a cache of artifacts. Thousands of people, many re-enactors in period dress, turned out in April 2004 when the crew was buried in what has been called the last Confederate funeral. With the inside excavated, the outside of the hull will now be cleaned before the sub is put in a chemical bath to remove salts left by years on the ocean floor. The Hunley will eventually be displayed in a new museum in North Charleston. Archaeologist Maria Jacobsen said the Hunley is like a crime scene except that, unlike on television shows, there is no smoking gun. "If we compare this crime site investigation with, say, a tragic plane crash in the mountains, that investigation would be a lot easier," she said. "You can go to the crash you can see the metal pieces and they have the fingerprints of the crash site." In the case of the Hunley, some of those fingerprints may be covered with the encrusted sediment on the hull that scientists refer to as concretion. When the sub was found there was no window in the front conning tower, suggesting it had been shot out, perhaps by Union sharpshooters. But no glass was found inside the sub and the remains of the captain, Lt. George Dixon, showed no injuries to his skull or body consistent with being shot while looking through the window, McConnell said. The crew's bodies were found at their duty stations, suggesting there was no emergency resulting in a scramble to get out of the sub. And the controls on the bilge pump were not set to pump water from the crew compartment, suggesting there was no water flooding in. After the attack both Confederates on shore and Union ships reported seeing a blue light, believed to be the Hunley signaling it had completed its mission. A lantern with a thick lens that would have shifted the light spectrum and appeared blue from a distance was found in the wreck. But after the attack, the USS Canandaigua rushed to the aide of the Housatonic and there is speculation that the light could have come from that ship instead. Could the Canandaigua have grazed the Hunley, disabling her so the sub couldn't surface? A good look at the hull in the coming months may provide the answer. Historians also know the Hunley needed to wait for the incoming tide to return to shore. "Were they waiting down there and miscalculated their oxygen and blacked out?" said McConnell. He said a grappling hook, believed to serve as an anchor of the Hunley, was found near the wreck. Cleaning the hull may produce evidence of a rope showing the sub was anchored, perhaps waiting for the tide to change. Then there is the mystery of Dixon's watch, which stopped at 8:23 p.m. Although times were far from uniform in the Civil War era, the Housatonic was attacked about 20 minutes later, according to federal time, McConnell said. One theory is the concussion of the attack stopped the watch and knocked out the sailors on the sub. Or the watch simply might have run down and was not noticed in the excitement of the attack. That could have led to a miscalculation of the time they were under water. Union troops reported seeing the Hunley approaching and the light through the tower window "like dinosaur eyes or a giant porpoise in the water," McConnell said. If the Hunley crew miscalculated and surfaced too close to the Housatonic on their final approach they would not have had enough time to replenish their oxygen before the attack, he said. The clues now seem to indicate the crew died of anoxia, a lack of oxygen, and didn't drown. "Whatever happened, happened unexpectedly, with no warning," McConnell said. Running out of oxygen can quickly cause unconsciousness. "One you reach that critical stage, it's like you flick a switch," he said. "It's that fast, like on an airplane
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Last trading day/First trading day of the year....
No charts to or data to back it up, but if I feel so inclined I may attempt a back test to substantiate the statement from a revered CNBC analyst, "The Last trading day historically is usually down; and conversely the First trading day is usually up".
Buy on close today and Sell on close Friday.
Happy New Year's
Buy on close today and Sell on close Friday.
Happy New Year's
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
MET Life...... Update
Doesn't this stock stuff look EZ?
It's fairly obvious where the price resistance is going to be going forward. Question is how to protect your gains? If you are able - sell Calls; if not buy six month out PUTS. Basically, one could use the bottom of this recent shoulder and the Target area as a price range to trade around. Buy PUTS at the top of the range - take profits on Puts at the bottom of the range and use all profits to BUY more common shares.
It's fairly obvious where the price resistance is going to be going forward. Question is how to protect your gains? If you are able - sell Calls; if not buy six month out PUTS. Basically, one could use the bottom of this recent shoulder and the Target area as a price range to trade around. Buy PUTS at the top of the range - take profits on Puts at the bottom of the range and use all profits to BUY more common shares.
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Up for now.....
Is the bottom in? Well isn't that a question worth pondering? Not really.....
So 7,449 on the DOW 30 or $INDU is the bottom for now. So be it. Bottom line is 8,800 presents the tell tale line for the bull run of Obama 2009. Another could be Crude Oil per barrel bouncing off of LONG term 200 Month average of $45.08 per barrel.
Mere coincidence.....I think not.
So how about an old out performer: CALM
Yes, the NorthEastern Egg distributor has foretold the market over te last decade and is showing support at the 100% Fib line. Time for some CALLS. I like my eggs over EZ Money
So 7,449 on the DOW 30 or $INDU is the bottom for now. So be it. Bottom line is 8,800 presents the tell tale line for the bull run of Obama 2009. Another could be Crude Oil per barrel bouncing off of LONG term 200 Month average of $45.08 per barrel.Mere coincidence.....I think not.
So how about an old out performer: CALM
Yes, the NorthEastern Egg distributor has foretold the market over te last decade and is showing support at the 100% Fib line. Time for some CALLS. I like my eggs over EZ Money
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
MET Life......
Let's take a look at MET Life...
The long term monthly chart depicts the absolute crushing this stock has taken in the recent recession, but a look at the 60 day/60 minute bar chart below gives the glimmer of HOPE...
Bottom-line is if you've held through the recent downturn there is absolutely no reason to sell now. The $40 target may be a time to take "some" off the table, but I would do this only to reload for the eventual higher push back into the 60's.
I think it is pretty clear that the downward trend will be broken.
The long term monthly chart depicts the absolute crushing this stock has taken in the recent recession, but a look at the 60 day/60 minute bar chart below gives the glimmer of HOPE...
Bottom-line is if you've held through the recent downturn there is absolutely no reason to sell now. The $40 target may be a time to take "some" off the table, but I would do this only to reload for the eventual higher push back into the 60's. I think it is pretty clear that the downward trend will be broken.Perhaps a purchase of some $30 PUTS when the $40 target is hit to safeguard shares. And then buy more common with the gains from the PUTS?
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Dividend yield scan - 1 week results
I guess the results below explain why I have not posted anything this past week:
Not to toot my own horn, but I hope you made some money and have taken some off the table....
EZ money....
Not to toot my own horn, but I hope you made some money and have taken some off the table....EZ money....
Friday, November 21, 2008
Divididend yield scan....
Okay, so heres the scan criteria:
Price >= $5
Price <= $100
Average Daily Volume >= 250,000 shares
Dividend Yield >= 10%
Price/Earnings Ratio >= 8
Price >= $5
Price <= $100
Average Daily Volume >= 250,000 shares
Dividend Yield >= 10%
Price/Earnings Ratio >= 8
Anyway, I thought you would find this info helpful and enlightening setting up for some long term purchases. My plan is to glean out at least 5 of these.
Currently without even doing perfunctionary research I like: BAC, SNH, ADSK, NAT, CRY, NNN, PPL, OHI. This group alone covers Electric power, banking, software, biotech, healthcare, commercial retail space real estate, senior assisted living real estate, & tanker cargo shipping.
The bottom-line is "IF" these companies can keep their dividend intact with earnings power they "COULD BE" some of the biggest and fastest to recover. Otherwise I have a nice used John Deere you may be interested in......
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Is this the bottom for commodities?
DBC
DBC is an ETF following overall commodities. Will price levels bounce from here, pause to make a bear flag, or just blast through to make new multi-month lows? I'm looking at scenario #2....Shorterm bullish and looking for a short entry.
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