Shoulder level - 1738 - 1850
Head FormationTop - 1918
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Blog description
- Rodney
- A place for friends to gather and view stock market charts, discuss technical analysis and market outlook. What is your Principal Asset? How can it be developed? Each and all should do their own due dilligence and homework before investing. And by no means should you use anything I say or show here as a sole basis to buy or sell securities as everything is for educational experience only.
Friday, March 7, 2014
Friday, February 21, 2014
SPY - 185 resistance
Crazy long above 184.95. Otherwise consolodation is in order.
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Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Friday, February 7, 2014
Thursday, February 6, 2014
$SPX - 60 day 60 min bar
A break above today's high will begin the move to 1795. However, a failure to break today's high will test the 1750 level. should be an interesting day.
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$SPX
There is little support and a lot of white space between the current level and the 200 Day EMA Purple line. Bottom line is if the market cannot hold the low of yesterday 1737.92 it could get very ugly. Expect a bounce rally on Thursday and take the opportunity to lessen positions and sell into whatever strength there may be. Neutaral is a great position to be in till a discernable trend is established.
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$SPX
There is little support and a lot of white space between the current level and the 200 Day EMA Purple line. Bottom line is if the market cannot hold the low of yesterday 1737.92 it could get very ugly. Expect a bounce rally on Thursday and take the opportunity to lessen positions and sell into whatever strength there may be. Neutaral is a great position to be in till a discernable trend is established.
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Wednesday, February 5, 2014
Monday, February 3, 2014
Altria Acquires E-Cig Maker Green Smoke for $110M
Marlboro maker Altria Group Inc. says it is buying electronic cigarette company Green Smoke Inc. for about $110 million.
The Richmond, Va.-based owner of Philip Morris USA said Monday that the transaction is expected to close in the second quarter.
The deal with Altria's Nu Mark subsidiary also includes up to $20 million in incentive payments.
Altria began test marketing its own electronic cigarette under the MarkTen brand in August.
The company says Green Smoke's experience in the category, along with its supply chain, products and customer service, will complement its business.
Green Smoke was founded in 2008 and has operations in the U.S. and Israel. Its revenue in 2013 was about $40 million.
$SPX
Using Fibonacci Fans we can see a "swingout" method in lieu of parrallel trends. It still amazes me how price seems to gravitate to Fibonacci and Pivot levels.
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Sunday, February 2, 2014
Bruno responds with some insightful information
Mo..... Finally a quarter that missed street estimates - by a penny....
I find it interesting that total cig revenue continues to decline but mo grew market share of Marlboro brand.... Smokeless declining volume is a bigger concern but as I read more the point was made a lot of smokeless products are used outdoors... Construction types, athletics think softball.... Etc.... With the winter we are having who is going outside to smoke or dip... Wine business good but is a small part.... SAB Miller shares continue to provide diversification and cash....restructured long term debt from 4.3 to 3.6 billion by better interest rates. Company continues cost cutting structure. So going forward????? What does the crystal ball say???
E cigs and new "warming" products (pmi testing overseas) will tell the short term tale...
Sab miller shares are on the balance sheet for 6 billion. They are worth 18-20 billion at current market conditions....what could you buy for 18 billion dollars???? Or be debt free and generate a couple of billion dollars a year in cash??? Or send your shareholders a one time dividend of $10.00 PER share!!! Don't hit the sell button just yet...so while your sipping a cold one and thinking, make sure it's a sab/miller product! My dividends thank you!!
I find it interesting that total cig revenue continues to decline but mo grew market share of Marlboro brand.... Smokeless declining volume is a bigger concern but as I read more the point was made a lot of smokeless products are used outdoors... Construction types, athletics think softball.... Etc.... With the winter we are having who is going outside to smoke or dip... Wine business good but is a small part.... SAB Miller shares continue to provide diversification and cash....restructured long term debt from 4.3 to 3.6 billion by better interest rates. Company continues cost cutting structure. So going forward????? What does the crystal ball say???
E cigs and new "warming" products (pmi testing overseas) will tell the short term tale...
Sab miller shares are on the balance sheet for 6 billion. They are worth 18-20 billion at current market conditions....what could you buy for 18 billion dollars???? Or be debt free and generate a couple of billion dollars a year in cash??? Or send your shareholders a one time dividend of $10.00 PER share!!! Don't hit the sell button just yet...so while your sipping a cold one and thinking, make sure it's a sab/miller product! My dividends thank you!!
MO Flexible grid
Flexible Grid with Pivots link
Well it appears that MO missed analysts estimate and reported a 56% drop in revenue on low cigarette volume and a debt repayment.
The Pivot levels:
Daily: Bullish
R3 = 37.42
R2 = 36.22
R1 = 35.72
PIVOT = 35.02
S1 = 34.52
S2 = 33.82
S3 = 32.62
Weekly: Bearish
R2 = 38.61
R1 = 36.91
PIVOT = 35.62
S1 = 33.92
S2 = 32.63
Well it appears that MO missed analysts estimate and reported a 56% drop in revenue on low cigarette volume and a debt repayment.
The Pivot levels:
Daily: Bullish
R3 = 37.42
R2 = 36.22
R1 = 35.72
PIVOT = 35.02
S1 = 34.52
S2 = 33.82
S3 = 32.62
Weekly: Bearish
R2 = 38.61
R1 = 36.91
PIVOT = 35.62
S1 = 33.92
S2 = 32.63
Monthly: Bearish to neutral
R2 = 40.03
R1 =37.62
PIVOT =36.18
S1 = 33.57
S2 = 31.93
With a Friday closing price of 35.22, the 200 day EMA at 35.39, the Daily Pivot at 35.02, and Daily R1 at 35.72 Monday should be a telling day as to how MO is going to recover or not from this News and subsequent sell off. No doubt there are several setups for trading MO regardless of your investing or trading time frame.
R1 =37.62
PIVOT =36.18
S1 = 33.57
S2 = 31.93
With a Friday closing price of 35.22, the 200 day EMA at 35.39, the Daily Pivot at 35.02, and Daily R1 at 35.72 Monday should be a telling day as to how MO is going to recover or not from this News and subsequent sell off. No doubt there are several setups for trading MO regardless of your investing or trading time frame.
MO - 6month Daily
Looking shorter term on a daily bar and inserting a negative Fibonacci retracement we can see some possible trading levels of support and resistance. The major level of resistance is still the 200 day ema purple line at 35.39. Support at 33.80 and 32.26. A way to trade this on the long side would be to place a Buy order above the 200 day EMA of 35.39 as a break above this line will be bullish. Otherwise using this level as a STOP to initiate a short position. Next we'll take a look at the Pivots to see how they match up to these levels.
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MO - Lost it's Mojo
Broken trends all over. The most severe break is the 200 day EMA purple line at 35.38 which is now upward resistance. Also there seems to be a year and a half Head & Shoulders pattern forming starting in March of 2013. Left shoulder 6 months, top from August 2013 till January 2014 - 6 months, and right shoulder fromation Yet Tobe Determined. Interesting how the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of this pattern could have given you an excellent price level to play the bounce back to the 200 day EMA. Now that level of 54.29 will act as short term support. If the pattern comes to fruition there could be opportunities to pick up some more MO less than $32. Bottom line is when this pattern fails it will be a VERY Bullish sign.
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Thursday, January 30, 2014
GLD - 20 day 30 minute bar with Weekly Pivots
GLD chart
Well GLD and Gold had an interesting day gapping down due to some major banks selling derivatives to China. But here again this is where Pivot levels play such a part in trading. Take a look at the chart above as it speaks for itself on the affinity of the Weekly Pivot S2 level which held as support for today.
Well GLD and Gold had an interesting day gapping down due to some major banks selling derivatives to China. But here again this is where Pivot levels play such a part in trading. Take a look at the chart above as it speaks for itself on the affinity of the Weekly Pivot S2 level which held as support for today.
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
SPY - 1yr Daily
Look for a bounce off lower channel as well as the bottom formation of the Head and Shoulders pattern forming since November at $176.36.
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Monday, January 27, 2014
SPY - 5 Day 15 minute Bar Pivots
This is a great example of the usefulness of Pivot levels for entering Limit orders and trading regardless of your time constraints. I typically use a $0.05 buffer within the Pivot level. For example if the Pivot is $107.07 I set a Limit order to Buy at $107.12. And if i'm selling I use $0.05 less than the upward Pivot level to sell a Long position into strength.
SPY - 5 DAY 15 minute Bar
SPY - 5 DAY 15 minute Bar
MO - 5yr Weekly
Throw in a Fibonacci and we can see the affinity for the current levels and next upward target of $42.
The Flexible grid with Pivots shows short term major support at the $37 level.
MO - Flexible grid with Pivots
MO - Yahoo Key stats
MO - 20yr Weekly
MO is still chugging like the little engine that could staying above a mid- channel mark. Strong and early support at 50 week EMA of $35 and 200 Week EMA of $28.25 could be excellent areas to place Limit orders to get some MORE.
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Friday, January 24, 2014
T - AT&T 10 yr Monthly
Consistent 5.6% payer
I use a flexible grid with multiple time frames to initiate positions using Limit orders as well as closing positions with Limit orders. The grid is setup as a daily 5 minute bar chart with Daily Pivots on top, a intra-day 5 minute bar chart with Daily Pivots on bottom left, a 20 day 15 minute bar chart with Weekly Pivots in middle, and a 3 month daily bar chart with Monthly Pivots on right.
Each chart on bottom row has a 5 bar (yellow), 20 bar (orange), 50 bar (Blue), and 200 bar (Purple) Simple Moving Average. Using the combination of the MAJOR Pivot levels as well as the price affinity to the SMA's is critical to technical trading and setting price levels for Limit order entries and exits.
T - Flexible grid
T - Daily Pivots
T - Weekly Pivots
T - Monthly Pivots
T- Yahoo Key Stats
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
GLD Pivot look - You should be able to stream this grid live from the link:
Top chart is a daily 5 min chart with daily pivots.
Bottom left chart is 5 day 15 min chart with daily pivots
Bottom middle is 20 day 30 min chart with weekly pivots
Bottom right is 3 month daily chart with monthly pivots.
BWP - 5yr weekly
An average dividend yield of 8.10% over last 5 years with some possible growth potential at current levels.
BWP - Yahoo key stats link
Monday, January 20, 2014
CHL
Ken Fisher's CHL suggestion for 2014 is interesting international play on Chinese mobile telephone growth potential.
CHL Key statistics Yahoo Finance Link
AZO
Really? Ok I get it, new car sales are at lowest level since the development of the World Wide Web or over 30 years. So at what point do new car sales start gaining traction? Will it take another "Clunker's for cash" debacle? Bottomline is a great way to play this would be to SHORT AZO and pair with a long position in Ford Motor Company.
AZO - Yahho Finance Key Stats link
NS - NuStar Energy
NuStar Energy consistently pays 8.9% Dividend yield. Now could be a time to initiate a position below $50 per share.
NuStar Energy - Yahoo statistics and data link
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Dividend Challengers: 17 Increases Expected By March 31
Great article for setting up your buying strategy for the year:
Ken Fisher's latest column
In Ken Fisher's latest column he predicts a continuation of the Bull run into 2014 exceeding 6% while also giving some solid Dividend Yield stock picks with International flavor, and a peculiar long/short combonation play.
Friday, January 10, 2014
Saturday, January 4, 2014
Friday, January 3, 2014
$VIX - 10yr Monthly
Checking the VIX one can see that Options prices are relatively low reflecting a "Stable" market. Now is an excellent time to purchase those leaps or spreads.
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MO - 1yr daily
The little engine that could keeps chugging higher. Pretty easy to set stops. The pinching blue lines indicate a Pennant formation without a breakout occurrence. In other words as long as the 37.63 line isn't compromised MO could breakout higher and push $40.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2013
CMO - 10yr Monthly
Consistently paying every quarter yielding 10%-plus for $12.28 a share. What's it look like under the hood? Every little brown upward arrow indicates a Dividend payment and the last several have been $0.31.
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BA - 10yr Monthly
$10 Billion buyback plan and raised Dividend by 50%. I usually don't consider any airline company. However, the All time chart may have swayed me.
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MMM
Large buyback and Dividend increase. Definitely one to consider on pullback to 50 day or 50 week moving average.
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Tuesday, December 17, 2013
JCI - 10yr monthly
I believe Cramer may be on to something with JCI. Looks to me like a continuation of a multi-year cup with handle pattern. Target $59.25
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GE - 1yr daily
With GE spinning off GE Finance what are the chances the Dividend will get raised to a higher yield than 3%? A large part of that equation is now 70% of the Power & Industrial profits will remain in house.
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Friday, December 13, 2013
Sunday, July 14, 2013
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