Long
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Blog description
- Rodney
- A place for friends to gather and view stock market charts, discuss technical analysis and market outlook. What is your Principal Asset? How can it be developed? Each and all should do their own due dilligence and homework before investing. And by no means should you use anything I say or show here as a sole basis to buy or sell securities as everything is for educational experience only.
Friday, October 2, 2009
GLD
All this talk about currencies devaluing nationally and internationally leads creedence to the MASSIVE inverse H&S pattern on GLD as seen in dotted red. One way to derive a target from this pattern is to draw a line from head to neckline as seen in green, duplicate it and then move it to the top of the necline as seen in green again. Curiously, that matches up with a fib fan line as well as a longterm Fib 161.8% line for a target of 130-135.
Okay, from 65 to 95 took a year, will 100 to 135 take a year?
FYI: Jan 2011 $110 Calls cost about $6.60 per contract.
That's 456 days with a stop below the 20 week SMA 94.20 as a break would negate the pattern.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Stockpickers Quarterly Update
Bruno has made an astounding move to catch up and bring the Long category within 1% in the 3rd quarter. But getting creamed on the Short category for now as AMZN's upward move may be coming to an end this quarter.
POT
Trying to pick up some POT below $87.50
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
$SPX
Why the range 1040-1080 is so important.
If you run a Fib retracement between the linger term Fib lines of 1014 and 1121 you can get an explanation of the latest price movements:
1080 and above is top third
1067 is the middle
1040 and below is lower third
Remember sideways action is also consolodation and can be viewed as Bullish.
Bottom line it is dangerous to get outright short until 1040 is solidly broken and even then suppot lies very close at 1014.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Monday, September 28, 2009
GLD - nibbling short-term
Phasing in short-term on GLD at 96.97 95.25, & 93.90.
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$TOBACO
For those of you holding MO (Altria) I stumbled across this Tobacco indusrty index which goes back to 2000. Very interesting on a weekly showing major support and upward trendline extension for another 10%. Also note that last weeks downward push was nothing but a gap fill from 3 weeks ago to the previous weekly high 5 weeks ago. Folks this is VERY BULLISH and tells me that MO below 17.50 is a steal for the move to 19.50 which could take 3-6 months. Those $17.50 Dec Calls bottomed out at around $0.52 on Friday and I plan on continuing to add on the lows and may pick up some in the money July 2010 if the price is right.
For the Web's best interactive charts, please visit http://www.Prophet.Net
Saturday, September 26, 2009
$TRAN
A test of the transportation index secondary trend is intresting to me as oil actually fell this week. This is definitely a chart to watch for indcations of the overall market.
This sure looks like a HUGE Inverse H&S pattern indicating OIl will stay low or may even fall more boosting transy profits.
Or would a failure to penetrate 4142 indicate oil may be moving higher driving the Transportation stocks lower?
Either way set an alert at 4100 as a reminder to check the transportation stocks like BA, CAL, DRYS, EXM, GMR, LMT, RIG
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YHOO triangle
Bullish but wait for entry at lower level 14.
A buy stop above 17.80 would catch the break out move to 24. Set it and for get it.
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RIMM
err umm, looking for a lower level to get long maybe south of 65
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$SPX
Range 1014 - 1121
5 week SMA = 1040
If 1040 breaks 1014 is a certianty.
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Thursday, September 24, 2009
MCD
McDonald's boosted there dividend to $0.55 per quarter. I've not checked the yield yet, but bottom line is Mickey D's is a GREAT play for the kids portfolio and a long term hold. Especially when you consider the growth in China.
Look to get in below $55 with a stop below the ascending triangle or 53.85.
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RIMM shot at earnings
RIMM reported earnings at the close missing revenue targets and guiding lower on forecast. The after hours quote shows it shedding another 6 points at the open tomorrow.
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Wednesday, September 23, 2009
SPY
Indices sold off on the tick of the 50% Fib. The Kool-Aid has been served, but the vodka is still on ice. Be careful....
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Ford Folly
Hope you got on board. I've already sold half and now have a "free trade"...WAHOOO
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FCX 5yr weekly
A closer look shows it will not be a short till the trend is broken. Take note of the 200 week SMA at 65.45, a rising 5/20 week SMA, & and the turn of the 50 week SMA. ALL BULLISH.
One thought would be to get long above 73.30 with a corresponding cover and short oder below 73.
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FCX
Freeport Mcmoran is the best breed of miners when it comes to gold and copper. On this 20 yr Quarterly you can see why 73.12 is an important level.
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Tuesday, September 22, 2009
ARO
When this finally rolls over it's gonna fall hard...Waiting for a break of trend.
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LLL
Looking for things to short.....
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EUR/USD
Nothing bearish on the Euro/Dollar and room to go.
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BAC
Bank of America upgraded by Dick Bove from $19 to $25. But I bet he'll be selling into strength above $22.
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Monday, September 21, 2009
VZ
Verizon on a long term play. This 20 year monthly shows the Fib Fans act as support/resistance. A buy plan could be to nibble here with 25% adding 25% more around the 27.50, 25 and 22.50 price levels.
Friday, September 18, 2009
LLL
Double play with Level 3 communications.
Getting short above 83 target 65.75
Placing a buy stop above 85.50 target 94.50
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AZO
Shorting Autozone with a stop above the 20 week sma 152.97.
Target 140.
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PTR
I find it strange that PetroChina has lagged in the run-up. Looks like more sideways action for a few months.
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ACI
Long term look at Arch Coal says buy on dips to 19.50 with a target of $30.
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F
Nibbling on Ford and buying more at 6.55 if it gets there.
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Wednesday, September 16, 2009
MO
Loving in the money Dec $18 Calls on Altria.....
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AMZN - Update 5 FIVE point pop
Hope you took it and you are welcome if you did.
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Tuesday, September 15, 2009
ZION
Taking off again for now and in the category of "one that got away, again". The Golden cross of the 50 day over the 200 day SMA's will add fire to the bulls here. The patient may get a second chance on a pullback to the 20 SMA at 16.95.
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Ford Folly
Driving some Ford here between 7.07-7.15 with a stop at 6.92. Target 8.65 and beyond.
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AMZN Bull Flag breakout
Buying Amazon above $85.10 with a stop at 82.69 looking for a 10% move by January.
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Monday, September 14, 2009
DOW
DOW flying on low volume to $26.06 and 50% retracement. Sell into the strength and play the bounce back down to $21.26.
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BAC
Use some patience and wait for the break out or break down of this rising triangle. Buying calls above and puts below either way it will be a 7-8 point move in the fourth quarter.
For the Web's best interactive charts, please visit http://www.Prophet.Net
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