Bear flag or bear trap?

Looking at a 60 min/60 day chart of the SPY one can see the trinangle trading range forming over the last couple of weeks. Normally, a pattern such as this is broken in the direction of the prevailing trend which is still bearish and thus could be termed a "bear flag". If this is the case a likely target for the S&P would be approximately 70.00.

If the triangle is broken counter-trend to the upside the important levels of resistance are the highs along the downward green trendline and then the 200 hour EMA

Here it is on a daily 3 month chart. Note the importance of the 20 day EMA...